How The Republicans May Win This Year.

There is a scenario wherein the Republicans could pull out a (stolen) victory without getting the votes. Question is, how do we keep it from happening?

Mark Crispin Miller wrote a good editorial about rigged elections: http://www.truthout.org/...

This is worth reading. I'll paraphrase some of his points and offer my thoughts. Here is how the Republicans can steal the election. It's not rocket science.

1. First, they set up a scenario whereby they could pull off a fantastic win even though they are down in the polls. The easiest way is to create the impression that they have a tremendous GOTV advantage over Dems. In fact, they have already sold everyone on this. Dems and liberal bloggers all over are scared silly that the Repubs will GOTV so well that they'll win races in districts where Dems are favored. Even if their GOTV efforts don't work well, it doesn't matter when everyone believes it does and accepts it as a reason for a weird election outcome.

2. Second, they may or may not come up with some October Surprise. I'm not a big fan of this idea, but who knows. I think even if that happens, it'll be more of a mini-surprise, not some huge disaster or an attack on Iran. A great example of a mini-surprise was the bin Laden tape that 'cost' Kerry the election. It worked perfectly for Bush, even if that one was pure luck. People believed it gave Bush votes, offering less reason to question questionable outcomes.

3. Spend the last two years making laws and policies which hinder Democrats. This has been done in Indiana, Florida, and Ohio (and other places?), three states that Repubs need badly to hold onto Congress. Indiana and Florida have new voter ID laws. Other laws inhibit recounts, discourage registration or throw out registered voters. Even if these have little effect on hurting Dem voters, the impression is they DO hurt Dems, so again, less reason to question election results.

4. Dirty tricks. We've seen in California that Hispanics have been sent letters saying they'll be thrown in jail or deported if they vote. Doesn't matter if the perpetrator gets caught or not. The point is to scare people. And on election day there will be more tricks: lack of voting booths in Dem areas and the like. Again, it doesn't matter if the tricks work well. The damage is done.

Note also that although we liberals who read blogs have heard a bit about Diebold, electronic voting, and how these machines can leading to widescale cheating, the truth is that in 2006, there will be MORE OF THESE MACHINES USED! There will be more opportunity for using electronic voting to steal votes.

All of the above may be enough to swing a few elections the Repub's way. Not many, but some. It just may be enough. Republicans win Congress again.

5. Finally, and this is the fault of the Dems, consider this: Dems have, as USUAL, been so wimpy on election fraud issues by Repubs, that the Repubs may be able to express OUTRAGE before the Dems do! (Consider this irony: although it's been Dems who have been cheated out of victories in the last few years, it's mainly states with Republican administrations who have "worried" about fraud and have changed laws accordingly, like in Indiana and Florida and Ohio, as I mentioned above.) Wouldn't that be the greatest coup for the Repubs! In other words, outside of some editorials, some writings by Robert Kennedy and a few others, there's been almost no discussion, in the traditional media, of the cheating that cost Gore and Kerry the elections in 2000 and 2004. (I truly believe Gore and Kerry won both, period.) Dems have been way too afraid to say much, fearing they will look shrill, or that the Repubs will accuse them of..of something..and there will be some backlash. True, the Dems have no Congressional power to do much investigating now, but they still gave up easily.

Now consider this: What if the Repubs just BARELY lose the House, by one or two people. They may find a close race or two and guess what? THEY start SCREAMING about election fraud perpetrated by DEMOCRATS! That's right, the same people who have cheated their way to 'victories' for years will turn the tables on Dems. The media will finally get 'serious' about it and investigate. O'Reilly will be red with rage. When the Dems say, "What?! Wait a minute. YOU'RE the cheaters, not us!" it will simply sound lame and reactionary. The Repubs will already have won because they took the bull by the horn and got out front on the issue. They may get an race or two overturned and take back the House. The Dems will be able to do no better than to try to defend themselves. You see, Repubs don't cower like Dems do. Had Dems been making an issue of this for the past few years, this scenario wouldn't be so easy for Repubs to pull off.

So..my point? Repubs have a multi-pronged approach, any of them which can be used: 1. The supposedly great GOTV ability which makes us all believe that they really did win those upsets. 2. The October Surprise (maybe) that convinces people that the Repubs got extra votes. 3. Laws that help Repubs get more votes, or at least give that impression. 4. Cheating, cheating, cheating. 5. The possibility of an after-election campaign if needed, accusing Dems of cheating.

Dems need to at least consider these possibilities and try to fight back. It's almost too late already, but in the couple of weeks left there should be something we can do. I'm not exactly sure what. Some ideas:

1. Be very forthcoming that we believe the Repubs may cheat. State where, when, and how they may cheat and let everyone know that we're WATCHING CLOSELY. Do whatever it takes to make all voting as transparent as possible. Use independent bipartisan observers if possible. Maybe it's too late to set this up all over, but we could try in some of the more important elections. You know where those are at.

2. Exit poll like MAD, and be ready to counter any argument that exit polls somehow are not reliable. Because from what I know they HAVE been very reliable, except in a couple of amazing cases in the past few years, cases that always favored Bush.

3. Scream loudly about pre-election and election-day dirty tricks. Don't wait around to see if it affects the election.

Get out FRONT! Don't hand this to the Repubs.

Other ideas?